Macro-Economist Report: XAGUSD (Silver/USD)

Signal Summary

regime

realYieldOutlook

usdOutlook

keyCatalyst

conviction

68

Fed Policy

easingCycle

Assessment: Fed paused after aggressive 69bp easing cycle. Rate at 3.64% -- still restrictive relative to 3.29% CPI. However, inflation re-acceleratio

nextMeeting

| ~Apr 30, 2026 | FOMC calendar |

implication

for silver: Neutral to mildly bullish. The 69bp already delivered is supportive. Further pause or pivot to hawkish would cap upside.

Real Yields

trend

|

implication

for silver: BULLISH. This is the strongest tailwind. If real yields break below 1.80%, expect significant silver rally.

USD Strength

tradeWeightedUsd

120.66

trend

|

implication

for silver: NEUTRAL. DXY above 121 would be a headwind; below 118 would be a tailwind. Current 120.66 is middle of range. Watch for breakout direction.

Inflation

Yield Curve

spread2y10y

2

shape

| 2Y-10Y spread | +51bp | Positive (steepening) |

implication

for silver: MILDLY BULLISH. Positive steepening in this context suggests eventual rate cuts ahead.

Central Banks