Macro-Economist Report: XAUUSD

Signal Summary

regime

STAGFLATIONARY TRANSITION

realYieldOutlook

RISING (bearish for gold)

usdOutlook

RANGE-BULLISH (higher-for-longer)

keyCatalyst

FOMC Apr 30 + next CPI print

conviction

72

Fed Policy

rate

[object Object]

easingCycle

Easing cycle status: 175bps of cuts delivered from 5.50% peak. Last cut was to current 3.50-3.75% range. The March FOMC kept rates unchanged and signa

nextMeeting

April 30 FOMC. Prior to the CPI shock, markets pri

implication

for gold: Neutral-to-bearish. No rate cuts removes a key bullish catalyst. Any hint of re-tightening would be sharply bearish.

Real Yields

trend

RISING. The most important variable for gold. The 40bp move higher in real yields over 6 weeks is a

implication

for gold: BEARISH. Rising real yields are gold's primary nemesis. At 1.95-2.28%, real yields are at the highest levels since the 2023 regional banking crisis. Gold needs real yields to FALL to sustain

USD Strength

tradeWeightedUsd

120.663118122

trend

RANGE-BULLISH. The dollar is not breaking out but is well-supported by:

implication

for gold: MODESTLY BEARISH. Stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for non-USD buyers. However, the relationship has weakened in 2025-2026 as gold decoupled somewhat due to central bank buying.

Inflation

Yield Curve

spread2y10y

2

shape

Shape: NORMAL / STEEPENING. The curve has been un-inverted since late 2024 and continues to steepen.

implication

for gold: NEUTRAL to BEARISH. A steepening curve with rising long rates is bearish for gold because it increases the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. The 30Y selling off signals fisca

Central Banks