Magazine-grade research from the DATFX CIO desk — multi-agent syntheses, thematic analysis, and trade plans. Every conviction score is reproducible from underlying agent outputs.
Three converging forces — de-dollarisation, central bank accumulation, and real yield compression — have created a structural bid that technicals alone cannot explain.
With DXY testing 18-month support and consensus sitting at +185K, a miss could accelerate the dollar's structural downtrend. We lay out the three scenarios and trade implications.
Historical halving cycles argue for a structural bull run. But a simultaneous global risk-off regime — VIX > 28, equity drawdown — has never coincided with a halving. We model the collision.
SOFR futures and swaption vol surfaces are pricing the first Fed cut at September with 72% probability. We break down the implied path and what it means for equities and credit.